Wednesday, May 30, 2012

$1,000 a Day Is Doable (So Far)

Account balance: $107,437.16.

Reaching my 1% gain today was a bit more challenging that I thought. It took three trades: One fast $600, and four shaking $90+ trades.

My last trade was this evening, and it was a long position in the EUR/USD. Technically I shouldn't be executing any long trades because the price action is below the 100 EMA, but the 5 min chart showed the RSI passing 70.

My suspicion that a trend reversal on the EUR/USD was around the corner might not be farfetched after all.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

$1,000 (or 1%) a Day

Account balance: $106,107.49.

I had a great morning of trading.

First, I woke up early! My alarm went off at 6 a.m., and I didn't automatically hit the snooze button. The goal of rising early wasn't to be prepared for FOREX trading. My intention was actually to attend a morning yoga class. I misjudged the amount of time it would take me to get dressed and walk over to the studio though, so I actually missed the class. This gave me plenty of time to pull up my Oanda account and dailyfx.com chart and trade.

Trading on the EUR/USD started off slow and confined. There wasn't much volatility. Then, as if out of nowhere (but actually because of a Spain downgrade), the price hit the lower Bollinger Band and kept descending.

I posted a $3,000 profit executing about three sell trades.

It was a bit unexpected considering that before the start of trading on Friday, I was almost certain we were in for some kind of EUR/USD bounce back. I suspected this after spotting the RSI divergence on the daily EUR/USD chart.

The Spain downgrade caused a change in the tide, and instead of fighting the flow ... I decided to go with it.

I've been thinking a bit about daily goals I can set for my Oanda demo account. Short, attainable daily goals seem like a practical way for a practical gal like me to trade without the emotional ups and downs that I know would accompany my risk-taking.

Aiming for 1% a day (or $1,000 on a $100,000 account) seemed right. On a day like today, $1,000 is not only doable, it can probably be accomplished in about a five-minute trade. On days where the price movement is tight and confined, I might have to look into breaking that $1,000 goal into four $250 sub-goals or 10 $100 sub-goals.

I do have concerns about setting any goal in monetary terms. I don't want to be distracted by the cliched dollar signs flashing in my face, playing to my ego. But so far, I seem to be letting the charts determine my entry and exit strategies--just as I had originally planned.

Emotions are in check and profits are up ... go figure!

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

My Strategy With Stocks

My FOREX trading strategy has not translated well to stock purchases. I purchased CIGX and JMBA last week, strongly believing they met all my criteria for going long.

But that was with the old EMA 100 strategy.

I've yet to try one stock with the Two-Touch Bollinger Band approach.

I'm having a bit of mental block with finding the pip value equivalent to stock prices. Pips don't necessarily equate to cents. One option in my exit strategy for this approach is to take a profit at 20 pips. How can I possibly apply that to a stock like JMBA? Should I be thinking in terms of percentage gains?

My gut tells me I should aim for a 3% gain with each of these trades. The problem is I don't want to miss out on a potentially lucrative stock run. Taking a profit at 3% when a stock has a 10% run will feel like a failure.

I need to devise a way to lock in a 3% gain but still leave myself available for more profits, should the opportunity present itself.

A trailing stop loss percentage seems to be my only option.

Perhaps tomorrow I'll make my first purchase under this new strategy!

The Optimum FOREX Trading Windows

I'm not a morning person. It's embarrassing to admit, given my age, but I slept until 10 this morning.

This presents a certain dilemna given my interest in stock market and FOREX trading.

Trading tends to slow down around 1 p.m. PST, coinciding with the close of the U.S. stock market. That gives me only a few hours to get a few trades in before the afternoon lull, when the price movement seems to bury itself into a tight Bollinger Band tunnel, only to emerge around 6 p.m. PST, when the European markets open.

I can't help but feel like I'm sleeping through some optimum trading. My only solution seems to be to adjust my sleeping routine for an earlier wake-up time. Perhaps I don't need to get up as early as 6:30 a.m., but getting up just one or two hours earlier may provide me with more opportunities to increase my account balance.

Grow, Baby, Grow

Account balance: $103,012.58.

I scored some lucrative trades last night--all going short. The "sell mode" continues.

This morning the charts are looking too promising though. The 5-min chart shows a frustrating horizontal side movement in the price action. I suspect the EUR/USD is in for a pull back, and I don't want to risk placing a long order when the price is below the 100 EMA. That would go against my strategy.

I'm also not confident enough to place trades while the price ping pongs back and forth in the horizontal Bollinger Band channel.

I want to "grow, baby, grow," but there isn't much in the charts that leads me to believe that's a viable option at this point.

So I'll wait and try to be patient.

I still plan on keeping my eye on the 5 min chart. If the price crosses the lower Bollinger Band, I might consider putting in a short trade. Worried that the price won't hug the lower Bollinger Band, I'll probably put a Take Profit order after 5 or 10 pips.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Now It's Time to Make Some Money!

The account balance reads $100,655.18!

I did it. I finally got my account balance back in the positive. All it took was two trades this morning.

I'm still in "sell mode" on the EUR/USD, and sticking with the Bollinger Band two-touch strategy has worked well.

Not every trade is successful though. I lost sight of the RSI divergence, and I actually put in a sell trade yesterday evening when I should have opted out of trading at all. At that point, I was so close to reaching $100,000, I was devastated at taking a step back again.

I learned my lesson though and have since avoided that mistake.

Now I'm looking forward to earning some money!!

Monday, May 14, 2012

Approaching $100,000

No doubt I need to refine my exits and entries for this new strategy.

But even still, my account balance reads $99,736.76!

Will I make it to back to the start sometime today?

Let's see if I can avoid screwing this up ...

Building Wealth From Very Little

I hope to one day be wealthy. I'm not inclined to the lifestyles of the rich and famous. I can't imagine dropping more than $100 on a dress. I don't dream of buying nice cars. Just can't see myself driving something luxurious through an In-N-Out.

But I do aspire to wealth because of the relative security of it. Figuring out how to get there from where I am has been frustrating.

So much of the information on finances is geared either toward guiding those out of debt and helping those will massive sums of money create more massive sums of money.

Don't get me wrong. Getting out of debt is crucial. I avoid debt like it's the plague. I legitimately fear my parents would disown me if I accrued anything more than $100 in debt. (They're big saving and "live beneath your means" kind of people.)

But at the moment, I'm in no serious danger of going into debt and I'm nowhere close to having massive amounts of money that can be invested in real estate, business ventures, etc.

So how do I begin building wealth with only $4,000 or so to my name? Many web users have posed this question on Bing, Yahoo Ask, etc. The only viable option put forth is to save money until you reach "the massive amounts of money" phase.

For someone like me, in the writing and editing business, it will take me until retirement to get there.

In my subtitle to the "Samantha Learns ... Forex" blog, I state that my objective is to supplement my (meager) income.

I'm beginning to rethink that objective.

Building wealth is important to me. I'm single, don't want to rely on a man or my parents for support, and I have dreams and goals (to be discussed later) that might require some steady cash flow.

It is with all that in mind that I pursue FOREX trading. Clearly, I will need to save some money (real money!) to get things going. But I hope and aspire to become comfortable enough with my trading strategy that I will be able to grow my meager savings into something substantial.

I once heard J.K. Rowling tell a group of college graduates that rock bottom is a great foundation on which to build your life. I'm nowhere near rock bottom, but I hope whatever foundation I'm laying now is good enough for the life I want.

A New Strategy--Bollinger Band Two Touch

Forget what I said about sticking to a strategy until it works. I'm into something new ... and I'm excited about it.

I'm still using the same indicators: RSI, Bollinger Bands, and the EMA 100.

Here's what I'm doing. On the 1-hour chart, if the price action is below the EMA 100, I prepare to go into what I call "sell mode." Then, I switch over to the 5-minute chart. When the price touches the lower Bollinger Band for the second time and the price and RSI are lower than when it crossed the first time, I place a sell order.

I pull out of the trade when there is an RSI divergence. If I anticipate being away from my computer, I place a "take profit" order at 15 pips below my entry price. My stop loss ("parachute") is 20 pips above my entry price.

We'll see how it goes ...

Almost Back to Even ... With the FOREX Account

My account balance now reads $99,049.35! That $100,000 is in reach.

I'm tempted to try a few short trades to see if I can inch my way forward. Patience is key though. I don't want excitement to overrun my strategy and send me further down into the hole.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Taking It to the Stocks

Tried the EMA breakout strategy with some hypothetical trades in the stock market.

I'm not losing hope, but so far I don't seem to have any winners.

I "purchased" JMBA at 2.02 this morning. It now sits at 2.01. I was hoping for another big move up. Everything about the setup looked so promising. On the day timeframe, the price crossed the 100 EMA, and it was hugging the upper Bollinger Band. Perhaps today was merely a correction from yesterday's big gain and tomorrow I'll wake up to some good news!

I also "purchased" a stock called CIGX. It had the same setup as JMBA, except the price was not hugging the upper Bollinger Band. I entered at 3.56, and it currently sits at 3.40. I go back and forth on what I should do with the stock. I'm not confident it's poised for huge breakout, so more than likely I place a sell order for a meager 2%-3% gain.

Almost Back to Even

I closed out of the EUR/USD shortly before 1 p.m. PST. I originally sold on Sunday evening, only to go deep in the hole before finally posting a gain. I added $2,000+ from that trade, which brings my balance to $99,844.57. Almost back to even!!

Looking at the various time frames, it's hard to tell if the EUR/USD will continue going down or whether it will have a rebound and then go down.

The Bollinger Bands are starting to chanel downward on the day time frame, which is a sight for sore eyes after the horizontal trend of the past week. I simply don't trade well in range.

I placed another sell (short) order for the EUR/USD. If it drops below its previously low of  1.2911, I'm in!

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Taking It to the Stocks!

It may be premature, but I decided late last week to try out the EMA 100 strategy on stocks.

I'll keep you posted on how that goes.

Watching the S&P

I'm no expert. Clearly! But I noticed these past few months of pretend trading in the FOREX market, that the dollar actually gains strength when the S&P 500 drops. (It's not suppose to be the case, though. Read here for more information.)

My charts lead me to believe the S&P may be in for another pullback. (There's a clear RSI divergence.)

I'm banking on that happening, which is really the only reason I'm holding the EUR/USD short.

Keep pushing on that lower Bollinger Band buddy!

Holding ... On

Sold a new batch of the EUR/USD on Sunday--when it opened up below the lower Bollinger Band. I was so sure it was going to go down, but it rallied up to the 1.3050 level before coming back down below 1.3000, where it clearly belongs. I was too afraid to see how much in the hole I was, but finally got the nerve to look this afternoon. I'm $2,000 in the hole on this particular trade, but I feel confident it will continue heading down.

The expert analysts at DailyFX.com said this rebound was a good time to enter into a strong sell position.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

EMA Breakout Strategy

Here's a copy of the EMA Breakout Strategy I'm currently using:

Sooner or later all Forex traders begin experimenting with different EMA settings.
Quite often very interesting combination can be spotted. Here is one Simple Forex system based on 50 EMA indicator.


Any currency pair.
Time frame: 90 minute or 3 hour chart, 4 hour chart
Indicator: 50 EMA.


Entry: watch for a candle to pierce 50 EMA and finally close above (to enter Long) or below (to go Short). Enter with the second candle after it makes 5 pips higher than the previous one.
Exit: not set.
Stop loss order: 15 pips below 50 EMA.




This strategy and others can be found on forex-strategies-revealed.com.

I didn't realize it until now, but the author of this strategy, Edward Revy, is also the website creator. This newbie is impressed!!

The EMA 100 and Me!

According to my new strategy, I need to wait for the price to reach 5 pips below the previous candle's low before putting in a sell order (or going short).
I switched to a daily time scale on DailyFx.com and altered the EMA to a period of 100 instead of 50. It was recommended by the author of the strategy to increase the period value when increasing the time  scale. (Good thing I read all the comments following his original posting!)
One of these days I'll figure out what EMA periods I'll need for all the different time scales. That way I can avoid this waiting!!

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Regroup Part Deux

Time to find a new strategy!
Enter the wonderful website that is Forex-Strategies-Revealed.com. This website is user-generated and allows newbie traders like me the ability to explore different FOREX trading strategies and learn new trading techniques.
I was drawn to the simplicity of one user's strategy--involving only the Estimated Moving Average.
(You might recall that my old strategy had three indicators.)
Check out what Mr. Edward Revy contributed!

I applied his strategy to my loser $97,000 account and posted a sweet $900 gain. I'm working my way back to even!!

Where Have I Been?

Yes, it's been awhile. A good friend of mine from college always jokes that I begin my emails to her by saying "I'm sorry for not writing sooner. Things have been crazy."
The truth is, yes, things have been crazy. In the past month, I moved apartments, mostly by myself, but with a little help from my parents. I began searching and applying for jobs. I even had my first interview in four years. (If you're wondering how it went, please don't ask.)
But have things been so crazy that I didn't have time to update my blog? No.
The reason I haven't updated it is because I'm a little disappointed and ashamed in my results so far with the Oanda practice account.
Right now the balance reads "$97,010.87." When I went as low as $96,000, I thought I was the biggest loser on the face of the planet.
I can get a bit dramatic sometimes ...
I started thinking about why this strategy was leaving me so insecure about my abilities to successfully trade FOREX.
Despite years of learning about the stock market and technical indicators, in many ways I still feel like a beginner. Under what circumstances then did I think it'd be a grand idea to create my own strategy and stick to it--even with fake money? ... Not a clue.
I had two options: throw in the towel or regroup.
There is a common theme that runs through most success stories: a setback and determination to keep going forward.
That's what I've decided to do.