Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Bollinger Band Uptrend Dip--Week 1, Day 2

Hmm, this strategy is looking pretty good so far. I didn’t publish my picks yesterday. At the time I was writing that entry I still wasn’t sure how I would go about finding stocks suitable for the Bollinger Band Uptrend Dip strategy. Early this morning though, I did discover one way, which I explain below the chart. First, though, let’s look at today’s performances of my first group of picks for my new BB strategy:


Stock
Purchase Price
Stop Limit
Price Target
Price as of 6/7
SKF
65.00
63.00
68.00
65.74
URZ
3.00
2.80
3.30
3.11
DOG
41.50
40.44
43.50
41.70
SDOW
34.00
32.00
36.00
34.63

(A light green shade indicates a week closing price higher than the purchase price but lower than the price target.)

THAT’S WHAT I’M TALKING ABOUT!! “I like me some mean green.”
(Note: DOG is also one of my BB Bullish Breakout picks. I don’t see why stocks can’t be a double threat.)
Here’s how I found these lovely gems: I used Market Intellisearch once again. Under Technical Alerts, I selected Mov Avg 13/50 Bullish Cross from the Alert dropdown menu (http://finance.marketintellisearch.com/alerts). I then sorted the entries by volume, from highest to lowest. (Again, I have no interest in buying and attempting to exit low-volume stocks.) One by one, I enter each stock into my Fidelity Advanced Chart screen with the following settings and indicators enabled: Bollinger Bands, Volume, Simple Moving Average, Dow Jones comparison (in a Bearish market, I like to see if the stock reacts in an opposite way to market)-Dual Axis comparison, Earnings (under the Events section), and 1-year time frame.
If the trend is in an upward direction (that is, most stocks close and trade above the Simply Moving Average line), and the stock has one or two (or maybe three) closes below the SMA line and then follows with a close above the SMA line, I will buy—but only if the upper Bollinger Band rises with the last close above the SMA line. (Wow, I wish I could’ve said that more articulately.)
Ø  I was technically a little late in entering SDOW (the dip below and subsequent rise about the SMA occurred 5/31 and 6/1, respectively), but I liked that this stock seemed to move in an opposite manner to the overall stock market. Since the stock market is moving down (and likely will continue to do so), I expected that SDOW would move up (and so far it has).
Ø  SKF was a similar story to SDOW. Its dip and rise occurred 6/1 and 6/2, respectively, but I liked the direction it was moving and it seemed to be on a bullish run (check out its bullish band expansion too!).
Ø  DOG had a look almost exactly the same as SDOW, so please refer back to my first arrow point for an explanation.
Ø  And URZ was the only pick where I seemed to have caught it at the right time. The dip occurred 6/6 and today (6/7) it closed above its moving average. So I bought!
I am off to a good start with this dip and rise dance, and I’m super-curious to see how the BB Uptrend Dip's first weekly assessment will shape up.
My picks for tomorrow for this strategy are as follows:
  • NCV
  • EWG
  • SAP
I will buy all of these if they close above their SMA and the Upper Bollinger Band values increase. I will know each one's purchase price, stop limit, and target price tomorrow.

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