Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Bollinger Bands--Bullish Breakouts--Week 1

My very first lesson in mastering the successful stock market trade will involve charts. (What can I say? I'm a visual learner.) More specifically, I will first explore the strategies inherent in the Bollinger Band technical indicator.
I'm not interested in learning how this wonderful band works. I suppose understanding how it manifests on my chart is important and the knowledge might serve as a springboard for an original strategy. But I just don't have an interest in going there, so I won't ... at least not yet.
Through internet research, I learned that these bands expand and contract based on the volatility and stability (or rather, under-activity), respectively, of the stock. From several YouTube videos as well as the websites that spawned these videos, I also learned about a strategy that I'm going to call the Bollinger Band Bullish Breakout. (Someone else probably already named it that, but I can't say for certain ... so I'm just going to take credit for it.)
A bullish breakout (i.e., the stock price goes up in a fairly significant way) occurs when the bands contract around the simple moving average line, creating a tunnel of sorts, and then expand wide like the bell of a trumpet (or better yet, tuba!). Important to note though that it is only a bullish breakout when the price hugs the upper bollinger band. If it hugs the lower one upon expansion, then it is a bearish breakout and the price is expected to fall even more.
I like this strategy because it seems simple enough to follow. I buy when the bands flare and the price is hugging the upper band. I know there are other factors to keep in mind and that the signal for a bullish breakout in no way guarantees a successful trade, but I'm starting from scratch here and I feel okay about giving it a go as long as the amount of money I invest is modest.
First I need to find out which stocks are nearing a bullish breakout. There's no way I'm going through a list. (Who's got that kind of time?) I decide to use MarketIntellisearch. From what I gather, the website operators have some sort of stock scanning software that can help me narrow down the list of viable candidates for this strategy. Under Technical Alerts in the Stock Scanner section, I click on the More Technical Alerts link. Then in the Alert dropdown list, I select Crossed Upper Bollinger and push Search. Voila, there is my list. Now I have no interest in low-volume stocks. I find they're really hard to sell when it's time to cash in my profits or get out before the price plummets even more. I sort the list by volume in descending order.
One by one I put each stock symbol into my Fidelity Advanced Chart. (I first discovered this feature while mindlessly perusing my account. I must've subconsciously believed it would lead to better profits. Why else would someone chose to surf the Internet there as opposed to countless other more infinitely fascinating websites?)
I set the following features on the chart: Bollinger Band, Simple Moving Average, Earnings, and Volume (well, Volume already shows up, I guess). I selected Earnings because I'm not at all confident in how earnings announcements affect the stock price. Sometimes the stock will plummet even if a company reports higher-than-usual earnings. I can't explain why, but I have a feeling the analysts are to blame. Regardless, it makes no sense to me.
I have a gut feeling I should stay away from stocks that in the 1 year chart (that's my default setting) seem to make huge leaps and falls in price. Even if I'm only investing a few thousand dollars at a time, I don't care to see that amount cut in half in the course of two days.
So in addition to looking for the "horn"-like picture in the Bollinger Bands for each of these stocks, I also look at whether the stock seems eratic (random leaps and falls--bad), has increased volume (a good sign, I think), and is either past an earnings report or doesn't seem to be affected by earnings reports.
For June 2, 2011--that's the day I'm going to buy, not the date of this posting--I like the following:
  • MPEL--look at how those bands flare! so pretty. I might be late in entering this one though. I see from the chart that the bands started to flare around May 31. Still I think I'll buy at 11.70, put a stop limit at 11.40, and aim for an exit target of 12.50. I also like that the overall trend seems to be up.
  • LNT--this one also has a lovely flare and is on an uptrend to boot. I think I'll buy at 41.35, put a stop limit at 40.32, and an exit target at 43.42.
  • KND--this one is a bit of a risk for me considering it's risen and fallen sharply in the past. But I was kinda drawn to the fact that its bands contracted so much around the moving average and price lines--something missing from my previous two selections. The trend is neutral though. Hmm, what the heck. I can put in a tighter stop limit to ease my mind a little. Buy at 25, stop limit at 24.25, and exit at 26.70
  •  IACI--band flares again. I can't help it, I like looking at the them! Buy at 36.80, stop limit at 35.45, and exit price at 39.50
Just to note, my stop limits are approximately half the percentage gains of my exit target. I'm biting this strategy from one of the websites I visited in my research.
I'll check back in tomorrow with an assessment to see how my picks do. I don't expect greatness, but it'd be nice if at least one ended up doing well.

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